Spatial Development of the Warehouse Real Estate Market in Russia: e-Commerce Versus Traditional Retail

The article examines the spatial diffusion of the warehouse real estate market in Russian regions in the post-Soviet period and identifies patterns and features of its development. The study is based on an analysis of the supply of warehouse real estate and demand for it in the largest cities and urban agglomerations of Russia. The development of the warehouse real estate market began in the late 1990s–early 2000s in the Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations with the arrival of international logistics operators and retailers. In the 2010s, leadership shifted to the largest urban agglomerations against the backdrop of increased regional expansion by multichannel Russian retailers. Only in the mid-2010s did growth rates increase in agglomerations with populations greater than 1 mln and cities with populations greater than 500 000. After 2020, online retailers have dominated demand. The development of their logistics networks will lead to a gradual increase in supply in cities with populations of over 250 000 due to the simultaneous proximity of logistics to suppliers and end consumers. The population of cities, the activity of retailers, and institutional activity are recognized as stable factors for the growth of the warehouse real estate market. Growth shock factors include proximity to growing international corridors and geographic location. The priority regions for the development of logistics, using the benefits of shock factors, are acknowledged as Omsk, Orenburg, and Saratov oblasts located on the border with Kazakhstan; on the North–South corridor, the Republic of Dagestan and Volgograd oblast; Irkutsk oblast, Primorsky and Khabarovsk krais, serving trade with China. The key development problems in the regions are the low volume of existing supply, the absence of large commercial real estate developers, the high cost of credit resources, and the rising cost of construction, which delays the entry into new markets by at least 1–2 years.