The role of rare earth and metallic mineral prices and sovereign inflation-linked bonds in AI-driven fintech industrial development amid the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A dynamic quantile analysis approach

Abstract AI-driven fintech industries face critical vulnerabilities from volatile rare earth and metallic mineral prices, geopolitical instability, and inflationary pressures. Sovereign inflation-linked bonds serve as incentives for investors in technological industries, despite the risks associated with rising costs of goods. By analyzing global data (8 September 2020–9 September 2023) via cross-quantilogram, recursive cross-quantilogram and quantile vector autoregressive approaches, this study reveals how Russia–Ukraine geopolitical risk, sovereign inflation–linked bonds, rare earth and metallic mineral prices disrupt AI-driven fintech outputs. Key findings indicate that rising rare earth prices suppress fintech productivity in long-term growth periods, whereas sovereign inflation-linked bonds mitigate short-term inflationary risk. Geopolitical turmoil disproportionately harms fintech outputs during market downturns, with both mineral price volatility and conflict-driven shocks amplifying systemic instability in fintech outputs and sovereign inflation-linked bonds. These results urge policymakers to secure critical mineral supply chains, promote inflation-hedging financial instruments, and foster international cooperation to buffer AI-driven fintech sectors against geopolitical and resource-driven disruptions.