Assessing Integration of Agricultural Markets in the Cross-Border Region of Greater Altai

Greater Altai, comprising cross-border regions of Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China, presents a promising area for trade and economic cooperation, with agricultural products holding significant potential. The study aims to assess the integration of regional agricultural markets in the transboundary territory by analyzing the interdependence of regional price dynamics and their sensitivity to changes in volume and scale of agricultural production. Based on a framework that integrated a causal approach, the Granger causality test, and cross-correlation analysis, we introduced two indices—a generalized integration index and a market connectivity index. These were calculated using statistical time series data from the Greater Altai regions and countries. We also decomposed the integration indices by product types and regions. Additionally, we compared the level of integration between regional markets within the cross-border area with their level of integration with their respective national markets. The findings showed that regional markets are highly integrated into national ones, while the cross-border integration is overall weak. Notably, however, certain pairs of regions showed high integration indices. The higher index of integration was identified on the grain and meat markets. These empirical results deepen our understanding of the theories of international economic integration and cross-border cooperation. The revealed aspects of agricultural market integration in Greater Altai are important for developing long-term cooperation strategies between countries for designing policy to balance commodity markets and regional agricultural development.