How vehicle electrification contributes to carbon neutrality? A case study for a region in southern China with rapid electric vehicle growth

• GHG emissions transition towards upstream fuel production phase as EV progresses. • Vehicle electrification contributes to up to 63.0% reduction in GHG emissions. • BEVs show a greater potential for GHG emission reduction in a long-term perspective. The growth of electric vehicles (EVs) is experiencing significant acceleration. However, a thorough assessment of the factual effects of EVs on mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, taking into account various EV powertrain types and the specific regional conditions of certain provinces, has yet to be undertaken. This study offers an initial life cycle analysis to assess the energy consumption and GHG emissions associated with EVs that feature five different powertrain systems, alongside gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (GICEVs), by establishing localized datasets and examining fuel transportation processes relevant to both the current year and projected scenarios for 2030, 2040, and 2050 in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (GZAR). The findings reveal that all types of EVs are more efficient than GICEVs concerning energy consumption and GHG emissions, with battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) showing the most pronounced advantages. Encouraging the use of BEVs could result in a 49.8% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease in GHG emissions of 25.0% to 63.0% compared to GICEVs. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the life cycle GHG emissions of vehicles in GZAR are primarily influenced by the proportion of thermal power rather than factors such as recycled steel usage, vehicle lifespan, or curb weight. According to scenario analysis, BEVs hold a greater potential for GHG emission reduction in a long-term perspective compared to other types of EVs. Our results also suggest that increasing the share of high-performance EVs, improving fuel efficiency, and using cleaner electricity sources could collectively promote a successful shift toward low-carbon transportation for regions like GZAR.