Impact of the political government’s short-term policies on renewable energy megaprojects in Pakistan: a fuzzy critical path analysis

Purpose This study investigates the delay in the Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Plant, an energy megaproject (MP) in Pakistan. The study aims to investigate how inconsistencies in government energy policies and a focus on short-term gains can delay mega-energy projects in developing countries. It also provides the delay costs (in terms of economic equivalency) of the project. Design/methodology/approach This study employed a mixed-method approach, integrating both qualitative and quantitative data. Initially, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to establish the theoretical foundation. Qualitative data were gathered through project site visits and the analysis of government official documents. For quantitative analysis, the study utilised the fuzzy set theory-based critical path method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), allowing for a nuanced assessment of project timelines under varying conditions of uncertainty. Findings It was found that the use of a fuzzy set theory-based project management technique (where both optimistic and pessimistic timeline is considered along with a realistic timeline) instead of the traditional project management approach could have completed the project in 2,093 working days instead of 2,815 days. The cost overrun from Rs. 54 billion to Rs. 506 billion could be attributed to depreciation and inflation, lack of proficiency in project management and lack of risk assessments. Practical implications The findings can help reduce energy-related MP delays in developing countries. The findings are equally beneficial for the pre-evaluation of MP risks and securing finances based on project timelines (using both optimistic and pessimistic approaches). Originality/value The unique contribution of this study is that it combines the fuzzy set theory with the CPM and PERT to analyse an energy MP within the context of a developing country, specifically Pakistan. Notably, the study identifies how the shortsightedness of the country’s policies can delay MP projects and increase their costs.