Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth in Tunisia : Evidence from an ARDL Analysis

Abstract This study examines the relationship between financial inclusion and inclusive growth in Tunisia over the period 2006–2021. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis distinguishes between short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships while accounting for institutional and structural factors. The results confirm the existence of a stable long-run relationship among inclusive growth, financial inclusion, governance quality, human capital, and foreign direct investment. Financial inclusion exerts a positive but transitory effect on inclusive growth in the short run, while its long-run impact remains statistically insignificant. In contrast, governance quality and foreign direct investment emerge as robust long-run drivers of inclusive growth. These findings suggest that financial inclusion is a necessary but not sufficient condition for inclusive growth in Tunisia, underscoring the importance of complementary institutional and structural reforms.