Impacts of forest management and climate change on carbon emissions in Mediterranean forests

• We assessed full carbon balance for alternative forest management strategies • Manufacturing is the main C emission source, far surpassing harvest and transport • Promotion of bioenergy turns low-yield pine forests into carbon sources • Producing long-lived wood products boosts the forest’s net carbon sink potential • Adaptive management helps forests stay carbon sinks under climate change stress Forest management is crucial for climate change mitigation, particularly in Mediterranean forests, which serve as significant carbon pools but face increasing climate threats. This study assesses the impact of different forest management strategies on the carbon balance of Mediterranean forests in Catalonia (NE Spain) under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We simulate forest dynamics over 100 years and apply a Life Cycle Assessment approach to quantify carbon fluxes associated with four contrasting management strategies: (i) Business-as-usual, (ii) Promotion of wood energy, (iii) Carbon storage, and (iv) Ecohydrological-based management. Our results indicate that management strongly influences the carbon balance, often outweighing the effect of climate change. The carbon storage scenario exhibited the highest net sequestration due to extended rotations and the production of long-lived wood products, while the Promotion of wood energy scenario led to higher emissions, resulting in carbon losses in low-productivity Pinus nigra forests. Manufacturing dominated emissions (50–75%), while forest growth accounted for most uptake (77%). Our findings indicate that climate-smart forestry in Mediterranean landscapes should prioritize strategies that balance productivity, resilience, and carbon storage. Ecohydrological management stands out as a scalable pathway for the fragmented private forests typical of the region, while carbon-storage practices may be selectively applied in productive and well-protected stands.