Analyzing pandemic Covid-19 cycling trends and their determinants in Paris and Barcelona

The COVID-19 pandemic influenced urban mobility worldwide, prompting travel restrictions, physical distancing, and lockdowns. Active transport modes, particularly cycling, emerged as socially distanced and adaptable alternatives. In response, many cities rapidly implemented cycling-friendly measures, such as repurposing streets, e-bike subsidies, and traffic-calming initiatives. Investigating these trends statistically, this study centers on three hypotheses: (1) pandemic conditions spurred a notable rise in cycling relative to pre-pandemic levels; (2) new biking infrastructure and lockdown policy interventions were drivers of this rise; and (3) an important motivation for biking under the pandemic was essential errands, like shopping for groceries. Drawing on publicly available weekly bicycle counts from Paris and Barcelona, we employed time series regression models to address our hypotheses. Results confirmed a substantial surge in cycling in both cities. Lockdown policy stringency was associated with increased cycling in both cities. Paris seemed to show a stronger sensitivity to infrastructure interventions. The findings underscore that this devastating health crisis also served as a catalyst for a shift toward more sustainable travel.