Projection of Climate Attributes Using CanESM2 RCM for the Lemo District of Central Ethiopia of Region

This article assessed the historical climate attributes and the future projections for the Lemo district of south central Ethiopia based on the observed and the projected climate variables of the Meher season. An observation of rainfall, temperature, and down welling short wave radiation for the period 1991–2020 and climate projection data from the CanESM2 RCM for the period of 2021–2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model Bias Correction Method of capturing historical rainfall and temperature data for that specific area of study then correcting the bias found between the RCM data and observed station data. In our case, we have applied a scientific software called CMhyd (Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling) to extract the net CDF (Network Common Data Form) model data obtained from RCMs. Statistical tests and variability measuring indexes applied for analysis. Results showed insignificantly increasing trends of rainfall and temperature over the Lemo district during 1990 to 2020. And also the projections by 2021 to 2050 (near term), 2050 to 2080 (mid-term) as well as 2081 to 2100(end-term) indicate an increase in temperature compared to the 1991-2005 of baseline periods. Whereas high variability of rainfall amount, onset and cessation changes are expected to be happened in the future. This finding shows increasing trend of variability in rainfall and temperature indicating the risks of climate change impact. Therefore identifying relevant agricultural, environmental and social adaptation strategies are desirable.