Online accelerating precursor identification and dynamic probabilistic prediction for rock slope failures using Bayesian inference

Timely identification of accelerating precursors and performing reliable time-to-failure analysis are the key components in the management of slope failure risks. This study focuses on rock slope failures and proposes a framework for online identification of accelerating precursors and dynamic probabilistic prediction of failure time grounded in Bayesian inference. By integrating the Bayesian online changepoint detection (BOCD) method with a typical dimensionless trend (TDT) model, the BOCD-TDT algorithm is first developed for online identification of acceleration events and their corresponding onset of acceleration (OA). Subsequently, a Bayesian approach is employed to estimate the parameters of the inverse velocity (INV) method, enabling the dynamic probabilistic prediction of slope failure time while quantifying observational and model uncertainties across different accelerating deformation stages. Building on this, the influence of starting point (SP) selection, trend update (TU), and multi-data fusion on prediction reliability is evaluated, and a novel decision criterion for impending slope failure is proposed. The feasibility of the proposed methods is then validated using 73 rock slope failure cases. Results show that using INV data, the BOCD-TDT algorithm can reliably identify acceleration events and the corresponding OA. In time-to-failure analysis, the reliability of dynamic failure predictions can be enhanced by incorporating both observational and model uncertainties corresponding to the deformation stages into the Bayesian prediction model, along with TU detection and multi-data fusion. The proposed failure probability criterion provides valuable guidance for the identification of impending failure and the establishment of ultimate alert thresholds.