Development of the agricultural sector based on an ecological footprint approach to support food security in Jombang Regency, East Java, Indonesia

This study examines the development of the agricultural sector in Jombang Regency, East Java, Indonesia, using the ecological footprint approach to support sustainable food security. The research aims to assess the balance between human demand for natural resources and the ecological capacity that sustains agricultural activities, while also projecting future conditions through forecasting and spatial analysis. Agriculture plays a crucial role in meeting food needs and supporting local livelihoods, yet its sustainability is increasingly threatened by land limitations, environmental degradation, and the continual conversion of agricultural areas. Jombang Regency, as one of East Java’s key food-producing regions, faces pressures from intensification practices that risk reducing soil quality, water availability, and biodiversity. This study measures biocapacity and ecological footprint to evaluate agricultural land availability and utilization, supported by projection models to identify long-term trends. Findings show a decline in biocapacity from 2022 to 2024, with several subdistricts experiencing ecological deficits. Projections to 2044 indicate a continued decrease in ecological capacity. These results serve as a foundation for strategies to strengthen agricultural surplus through integrated agro-industry development and sustainable regional planning. The ecological footprint approach offers a robust analytical basis for maintaining Jombang’s role as a regional food basket.