The hybrid renewable energy community approach (HyRECA): Synergising electricity access with bush encroachment mitigation in rural Southern Africa

• Rural electrification holds potential for ecological restoration in Southern Africa • Novel method assesses affordability via Willingness to Pay and Multi-Tier Framework • Encroacher bush hybrid systems thrive off-grid but lose edge when grid-connected • At least 70% of households can afford electricity for medium-power appliances • Encroacher bush could electrify 1.35 million in Botswana, Namibia and South Africa . Rural electrification and bush encroachment in Southern Africa have long been studied separately. Research shows that hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) offer viable solutions for off-grid communities, and bush encroachment mitigation is widely recognised as an ecological priority. Using Jamataka, Botswana, as a case study, this study integrates both, asking under which conditions encroacher bush-based HRES are economically viable, which electricity access levels local populations can afford, and whether biomass utilisation contributes to mitigation. Findings indicate strong potential for bush-based HRES in off-grid areas, but competitiveness declines where low-cost grid electricity is available. Economic viability is examined through levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) across alternative HRES configurations. HOMER Pro® simulations indicate PV/biomass/battery systems are most cost-effective off-grid, achieving 100% renewable fractions, near zero CO₂ emissions, and LCOE of 0.246 $/kWh. In grid-connected contexts without feed-in, PV/diesel/grid combinations dominate (LCOE 0.117 $/kWh) due to low tariffs, but with higher emissions. A novel affordability analysis using household willingness to pay and the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework indicates that all households reach at least Tier 3 electricity access under grid-connected systems and >70% off-grid, supporting household-use of medium-power appliances. Sustainable biomass extraction clears ∼12 ha annually (∼120 t) in Jamataka, aiding bush encroachment mitigation. Upscaling indicates potential to electrify 1.35 million people in >900 bush-encroached villages across Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa, using <1% of encroached land – highlighting significant untapped potential. Future research should validate findings through geospatial modelling with high-resolution biomass data and spatially sensitive biomass cost models for region-wide planning.