Dynamics and Determinants of China’s Inter-Provincial Staple Food Flow Resilience: A Network Perspective

Global climate change results in increasing challenges to the structural security of China’s food system, while pronounced spatial heterogeneities in provincial production and consumption intensify the risk of supply-demand imbalance. This study examines the resilience of China’s inter-provincial staple food flow network from a systemic perspective and identifies its key drivers. Inter-provincial food flows are first inferred using a cost-minimization optimization model. Network resilience is then evaluated by integrating complex network analysis with ecological network resilience theory. Finally, econometric analysis is applied to quantify the relative contributions of multiple structural factors to resilience dynamics. The results reveal an overall decline in the resilience of aggregated staple food, alongside persistently low resilience in soybeans network, indicating heightened structural vulnerability. Substantial heterogeneity is observed across staples in both resilience levels and underlying mechanisms. In general, greater connectivity and diversity of flow paths enhance system resilience, although this effect is markedly weaker for soybeans due to concentrated and import-dependent supply structures. By explicitly linking flow, network structure, and resilience, this study provides system-level insights into the functioning of inter-provincial food flow networks. The proposed analytical framework offers a transferable tool for assessing interregional food flow resilience and supports evidence-based strategies for validating system robustness under uncertainties.