Difference-Splitting Voting: Middle-Ground Votes at the U.S. Supreme Court

The Supreme Court has recently delivered big wins for conservatives on issues such as guns, abortion, and campaign finance. In many well-known cases in the Court’s history, however, various justices have cast votes that split the difference between conservative and liberal positions. This paper develops the first systematic measure of “difference-splitting votes” at the Supreme Court and considers what predicts this voting behavior. I find that these votes have declined as the Court’s docket has shrunk. Not all justices are inclined to cast these votes: justices who are more conscientious and less extreme are more likely to engage in difference-splitting. Justices are also more likely to cast these votes in salient cases. By understanding these votes, we can learn more about how jurists craft nuanced legal outcomes and the ways justices can send signals to other actors through their voting behavior.