NO2 Forecasting by China Meteorological Administration Evaluated According to TROPOMI Sentinel-5P Satellite Measurements and Surface Network

Accurate nitrogen dioxide (NO2) forecasting is crucial for proactive emission control and issuing public health warnings. This study provides the first evaluation of the China Meteorological Administration’s (CMA) operational CUACE/Haze-Fog V3.0 numerical prediction system, assessing its daily NO2 forecast accuracy against independent satellite measurements and in situ observations. We compare model forecasts with TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite column data and observations from 1677 Chinese ground monitoring stations, focusing on four key regions: the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, and Urumqi. An optimal spatial resolution of 0.15° × 0.15° was determined for TROPOMI data processing. The results indicate a strong seasonal dependency in model performance. The model systematically underestimates NO2 concentrations in winter but performs significantly better in summer. This systematic bias is confirmed by a Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) consistently below −20% in northern regions during the winter. In the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) reached 3.57 × 1015 molec/cm2 (vs. TROPOMI) and 1.09 × 1015 molec/cm3 (vs. ground stations) in winter, decreasing to 0.95 and 0.91, respectively, in summer. Critically, this winter bias pertains to pollution magnitude rather than temporal correlation; the model captures pollution trends but underestimates peak severity. Our study reveals a ‘vertical decoupling’ in the operational forecasting system. While the model utilizes surface data assimilation to correct surface pollutants, this study demonstrates that these corrections fail to propagate vertically to the total NO2 column during winter stable boundary layer conditions. This finding has broader implications for chemical transport models (CTMs): relying solely on surface data assimilation is insufficient for constraining column burdens in regions with complex vertical stratification. We propose that future operational systems integrate satellite-based vertical constraints to resolve the systematic winter bias identified here.