Cross-sensitivity of ecosystem services to land use change in China's poverty-stricken areas

Contiguous poverty-stricken areas commonly face dual pressures of ecological conservation and economic development. Land use change may lead to ecological degradation, which in turn may exacerbate poverty. Understanding how ecosystem services respond to land use change is crucial to mitigate the vicious cycle between poverty and ecological fragility. Therefore, this study focuses on 680 counties within China’s contiguous poverty-stricken areas. Using remote sensing and statistical data, we employed a cross-sensitivity method to quantify county-level ecosystem services response to land use change from 1980 to 2020. Results revealed that the most dramatic change in China’s contiguous poverty-stricken areas was the interconversion between agricultural production land (APL) and pasture ecological land (PEL). The transition from PEL to APL inhibited the growth of ecosystem services value (ESV). Overall, ESV initially declined before increasing, resulting in a net gain of US$11.04 billion. Cross-sensitivity analysis showed that sensitivity coefficients in 2000–2020 were generally lower than those in 1980–2000, especially for transitions among ecological land types. ESV was more sensitive to the transition from APL to ecological land and to transitions occurring within ecological land. Changes in APL had the greatest impact on ESV. Transitions from industrial and mining land (IML) to other land types tended to enhance ESV, whereas transition from forest ecological land (FEL) to other land types resulted in substantial to ESV losses. Spatial zoning further revealed strong clustering patterns of ecological sensitivity, with highly sensitive areas concentrated east of the Hu Line and extensive no-net change areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These findings provide a scientific basis for improving land use management and enhancing ecosystem functions in poverty-stricken areas. • Contiguous poverty-stricken areas face the intertwined challenges of ecological conservation and economic development. • Major changes occur between agricultural production land and pasture ecological land, reshaping ecosystem functions. • ESV sensitivity to land use changes exhibited notable spatial heterogeneity across 14 contiguous poverty-stricken areas. • ESV was more sensitive to land use changes in 1980–2000 than in 2000–2020, especially in ecological land transitions. • Industrial and mining land conversion boosted ESV, while forest ecological land loss caused major declines.