Evaluating the Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity of Marine Fuels Under the Maritime Net-Zero Framework

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from maritime transport account for nearly 3% of global totals, making the decarbonisation of this sector a critical priority. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the GHG Strategy, targeting the full decarbonisation of international shipping by 2050, with interim milestones in 2030 and 2040. This study evaluates the greenhouse gas fuel intensity of three representative vessel types, an oil tanker, a container ship, and a bulk carrier, using one-year operational fuel consumption data in line with the Regulations of the IMO Net-Zero Framework. Both conventional fuels, including conventional marine fuels, and alternative options, encompassing liquefied natural gas (LNG), e-hydrogen, e-ammonia, e-methanol, and biodiesel, are assessed for compliance during 2028–2035. The findings reveal that conventional fuels are unable to meet future targets, resulting in significant compliance deficits and balancing costs of remedial units. LNG provides short-term benefits but is limited by methane slip. In contrast, e-hydrogen and e-ammonia enable long-term compliance and generate surplus units. E-methanol shows a partial potential, while biodiesel delivers only modest improvements. The results underscore the need for a transition toward near-zero-well-to-wake-emission fuels. This study contributes by combining life cycle assessments with regulatory compliance analysis, offering insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders.