Research on the Potential and Influencing Factors of Sustainable Development of China’s Marine Fisheries

China is a major global marine fishing country, and exploring the sustainable development potential of its marine fisheries is critical to the global fisheries sector’s Blue Transformation. Based on sustainable development connotations, this study adopts the GM(1,1) model and entropy weight-TOPSIS model to predict and evaluate the marine fisheries’ sustainable development potential from 2021 to 2030, building an evaluation framework spanning economic, social, and resource-environmental dimensions. The results show an overall upward trend in the sustainable development potential during the period, with a notable 2022 trough driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, policy transitions, and complex international conditions. As adverse factors ease and long-term policies advance, the potential will continue to improve steadily. Finally, targeted policy recommendations are proposed, focusing on industrial transformation, technological innovation, resource-environment conservation, and factor guarantee to facilitate the sector’s sustainable development and Blue Transformation.