Geospatial multi-criteria analysis for urban green space suitability and expansion planning in nekemte town, Ethiopia

Abstract Urban green spaces (UGS) play a vital role in enhancing environmental quality, social well-being, and urban resilience. This study assessed UGS suitability and expansion potential in Nekemte Town, Ethiopia, using a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) integrated with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Eight spatial and environmental factors such as population density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use/land cover, proximity to roads, slope, elevation, proximity to rivers, and soil type were weighted using AHP and integrated in a weighted overlay model to generate a suitability map. The results revealed that 28.6% of the study area is highly suitable to suitable for UGS development, mainly located in areas with gentle slopes, favorable vegetation cover, and good accessibility. Moderately suitable areas cover 29.6%, offering opportunities with appropriate management, while 41.8% of the area is poorly suitable or unsuitable due to steep terrain, dense urbanization, and less favorable soil characteristics. Model validation using ROC-AUC analysis achieved an accuracy of 0.859, confirming high predictive reliability and robustness of the GIS-based MCA–AHP framework even in data-limited conditions. The suitability map guides sustainable urban development while enhancing climate resilience through increased vegetation cover, carbon sequestration, heat island reduction, and microclimate improvement in rapidly growing Ethiopian towns.