Data integration reveals that a statewide corridor initiative maintains greater wild turkey relative abundance and occupancy

Wildlife corridors have been proposed to strategically conserve wildlife habitat such that it facilitates connectivity between populations to allow dispersal, geneflow, and species migrations as the climate changes. However, few empirical examples have demonstrated the effectiveness of landscape-scale wildlife corridors. The Florida Wildlife Corridor (FLWC) includes 7.3 million hectares of connected undeveloped lands in Florida, USA, offering a real-world opportunity to assess the effectiveness of a landscape-scale corridor amid rapid development. Our objective was to evaluate how land cover and human population density influence wild turkey predicted occupancy and relative abundance. We then applied those relationships to predict how turkey populations differ inside and outside the Florida Wildlife Corridor (FLWC). Specifically, we compared the spatial differences in predicted occupancy and relative abundance to infer the potential role of the FLWC in supporting turkey populations under current landscape conditions. We first estimated the effects of land cover variables, climate, and human population density on wild turkey occupancy and relative abundance by integrating presence, count, and detection/non-detection data from citizen science and agency sources using hierarchical occupancy and spatially explicit integrated models. We used these modeled relationships to predict turkey distribution (i.e., occupancy and relative abundance) statewide and compared these variables inside and outside the FLWC. Additionally, we compared observed productivity inside and outside the FLWC. Overall, the predicted occupancy and relative abundance were higher inside the FLWC compared to outside. Both predicted occupancy and relative abundance tended to decrease with urbanization and human population. Importantly, natural landcovers, including forests, shrublands, and grasslands, were predominantly located inside the FLWC, whereas open water, agricultural, and higher human population densities were concentrated outside the corridor. Observed productivity was similar inside and outside the FLWC. Given that measures of turkey population productivity did not vary within and outside the FLWC, we speculate that the observed patterns may reflect indirect benefits of connectivity rather than direct effects on reproduction. For example, improved habitat availability or quality, movement opportunities, or other effects that moderate survival (e.g., predator differences) may be underlying mechanisms behind the difference between inside and outside the FLWC. Nevertheless, given the observed differences in relative abundance and occupancy, our findings support the growing recognition of the importance of maintaining habitat connectivity for conservation of wildlife in the face of global change.