Climate Change Influence on the Distribution of Four Plant Medicinal Species from the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

The Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, México, because of its high biodiversity, is a good candidate for studying the possible effects of climate change on its flora distribution. Currently, several modelling tools have been developed to facilitate the prediction of present and future species distribution. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the distribution of four locally important medicinal plant species from the Asteraceae family (Heterotheca inuloides, Laennecia filaginoides, Pinaropappus roseus, and Tagetes lucida). The analysis was done using the maximum entropy algorithm under three different time periods: the present, 2050, and 2070, projected to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) future climate scenarios. Using a principal component analysis, we selected the variables that best explained each of the models. The modelling results showed that it is difficult to identify a consistent pattern of species distribution under the different scenarios and time periods since the species responses differed among time periods and scenarios. Laennecia filaginoides is the only species whose distribution increases by 2050 and 2070 under both scenarios analyzed. Our results may support future conservation strategies in the communities where species are distributed and utilized due to their demonstrated capacity to alleviate different illnesses.