Range-wide assessment of habitat suitability for jaguars using multiscale species distribution modelling

Jaguars (Panthera onca) are highly sensitive to persecution, habitat loss, and fragmentation, making the identification of suitable habitat critical for conservation planning. Using GPS telemetry data from 172 individuals across eight countries - the largest jaguar dataset to date - we developed multiscale Resource Selection Functions (RSFs) incorporating 15 environmental covariates to model habitat suitability across the species' historic range. Jaguars selected productive habitats near water and strongly avoided human-modified landscapes, including areas with high human population density and livestock presence. The resulting habitat suitability surface showed strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.88; Boyce Index = 0.91) and correlated with known density estimates and distribution models. Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and Protected Areas (PAs) contained 68.7% and 53.9% of predicted suitable habitat, respectively, while occupying only a third of the range. Non-designated lands, though comprising just 4% of the range, held nearly 10% of total suitability. The Amazon and Mayan Forests were identified as core strongholds, while ecoregion-based modelling revealed additional areas of high suitability in the Pantanal, Gran Chaco, Cerrado, and coastal Mexico. While Brazil encompassed the largest extent of highly suitable habitat, countries such as Paraguay, Argentina, and the United States gained conservation relevance under the ecoregion-stratified scenario.

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Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2025-12-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-30512-5
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
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article

Range-wide assessment of habitat suitability for jaguars using multiscale species distribution modelling

Daiana Jeronimo Polli, Ronaldo Gonçalves Morato, George Powell, William Moreno et al.
Scientific Reports
Species Distribution and Climate Change
article

Range-wide assessment of habitat suitability for jaguars using multiscale species distribution modelling

Daiana Jeronimo Polli, Ronaldo Gonçalves Morato, George Powell, William Moreno, Marcos Roberto Monteiro de Brito, Diogo Maia Gräbin, Rebecca J. Foster, Carolina Franco Esteves, Alexandra Zimmermann, Bart J. Harmsen, Juliano A. Bogoni, Carlos De Angelo, Y. Malhi, Cláudia Barbosa Ladeira de Campos, F. J. Palomares, Valeria Boron, Ricardo Sampaio, Guilherme Costa Alvarenga, Grasiela E.O. Porfirio, Mathias Tobler, DW Macdonald, Ana Cristina Mendes-Oliveira, Louise Maranhão, Samuel A. Cushman, Leonardo Sena, Emiliano E. Ramalho, Żaneta Kaszta, Caroline C. Sartor, Øystein Wiig, Gerardo Ceballos, Rodrigo Nuñez, Fernando C. C. Azevedo, Heliot Zarza, Ivonne Cassaigne, Diego F. Passos Viana, Esteban Payán, Emiliano Donadio, Ana Carolina Srbek-Araujo
article en

Abstract

Jaguars (Panthera onca) are highly sensitive to persecution, habitat loss, and fragmentation, making the identification of suitable habitat critical for conservation planning. Using GPS telemetry data from 172 individuals across eight countries - the largest jaguar dataset to date - we developed multiscale Resource Selection Functions (RSFs) incorporating 15 environmental covariates to model habitat suitability across the species' historic range. Jaguars selected productive habitats near water and strongly avoided human-modified landscapes, including areas with high human population density and livestock presence. The resulting habitat suitability surface showed strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.88; Boyce Index = 0.91) and correlated with known density estimates and distribution models. Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and Protected Areas (PAs) contained 68.7% and 53.9% of predicted suitable habitat, respectively, while occupying only a third of the range. Non-designated lands, though comprising just 4% of the range, held nearly 10% of total suitability. The Amazon and Mayan Forests were identified as core strongholds, while ecoregion-based modelling revealed additional areas of high suitability in the Pantanal, Gran Chaco, Cerrado, and coastal Mexico. While Brazil encompassed the largest extent of highly suitable habitat, countries such as Paraguay, Argentina, and the United States gained conservation relevance under the ecoregion-stratified scenario.

Scientific ReportsVol. 16(1)
Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (BR), Cato Institute (US), Zoological Society of San Diego (US), Panthera Corporation (US), Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto (AR), Federal University of São João del-Rei (BR), Universidad Autónoma de la Ciudad de México (MX), University of Oslo (NO), Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (MX), Northern Arizona University (US), Rob and Bessie Welder Wildlife Foundation (US), Leverhulme Trust (GB), Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR), University of Oxford (GB), Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES), Universidad de Morelia (MX), Fundación Huésped (AR), Primate Conservation (US), Fundação Museu do Homem Americano (BR), Instituto Pró-Carnívoros (BR), Sustainable Development Institute (US), Institute for Sustainable Development (ET), WWF-UK (GB), Centro de Investigaciones Científicas Isla de la Cartuja (ES), Universidade Vila Velha (BR), San Diego Zoo Institute for Conservation Research (US), Universidade Federal do Pará (BR), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX)
Panthera, Robertson Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa e Inovação do Espírito Santo, Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade
Life in Land
Openalex Percentile: Top 21%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
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