Geospatial analysis of carbon footprint pressure dynamics in China’s PRD urban agglomeration

Abstract As the challenge of global warming intensifies, managing carbon emissions and enhancing carbon sinks have become crucial measures for cities pursuing the ‘dual-carbon’ goal. However, existing research has largely overlooked the complex interrelationship between carbon emissions and carbon sinks. To address this gap, this study constructs carbon footprint pressure (CFP) indicators for nine cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) from 2001 to 2021, using carbon sink and carbon emission data. On this basis, we explore the spatiotemporal evolution of CFP in this urban agglomeration by applying a modified gravity model and Social Network Analysis (SNA). The main findings are as follows: (1) The CFP values of the nine PRD cities exhibit a fluctuating upward trend, with significant disparities observed among them; (2) The CFP network demonstrates a dynamically stable yet gradually evolving structure, showing a trend toward flattening over time; (3) The spatial network of CFP reveals a ‘core-periphery’ structure, with Shenzhen, Foshan, and Zhongshan occupying central positions; (4) In terms of block model analysis, inter-block connections are relatively strong, whereas intra-block linkages remain comparatively weak. Based on these findings, this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations.