Land Power and Deterrence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Greece, Turkey and the European Strategic Shift

This policy brief examines the evolving role of land power and armoured forces in the Eastern Mediterranean, with a particular focus on Greece and Turkey within the broader European security environment. Contrary to post–Cold War assumptions that prioritised light forces and precision assets, recent conflicts—most notably in Ukraine—have demonstrated the enduring importance of armoured formations, artillery and ground force endurance in high-intensity warfare. The analysis compares the divergent deterrence models adopted by Greece and Turkey. Turkey maintains a mass-based armoured doctrine focused on resilience, depth and sustained operational pressure, while Greece increasingly relies on precision anti-armour systems, air and naval superiority, and layered denial strategies. The paper assesses the strengths and limitations of these approaches under scenarios of saturation, attrition and prolonged confrontation. The brief also evaluates the European Union’s reassessment of heavy land forces following 2022, highlighting the renewed emphasis on armoured capabilities, artillery, stockpiles and interoperability. It concludes that effective deterrence requires a balanced combination of precision, armoured mass, firepower depth and operational reserves, particularly in regions characterised by strategic asymmetry and escalation risk.