Coastal Erosion of the Sea of Azov in 2000–2025: Dynamics and Hydrometeorological Factors

We investigated the impacts of a rapidly changing hydrometeorological regime on coastal erosion in the shallow, seasonally freezing Sea of Azov from 2000 to 2025. Our comparative approach integrated numerical modeling (SWAN), satellite remote sensing, and long-term field observations at two high-erosion sites: the Northern Site in Taganrog Bay and the Southern Site at the open sea boundary. The results demonstrate that coastal erosion is governed by complex, site-specific interactions rather than direct regional climatic trends. A major regime shift characterized by declining fast ice and increasing storm activity during the extended warm season has amplified coastal vulnerability, particularly after 2010. Despite high long-term average erosion rates at both sites, 1.1 to 1.6 m/year in the north and 1.5 to 1.8 m/year in the south, their annual erosion patterns were largely non-synchronous. The Northern Site is controlled by geological structure and surge phenomena, with peak rates reaching 8.5 m/year, while the Southern Site is governed by storm waves and extreme surges, enduring dynamic loads up to 10.0 tf/m2. These results provide complex interaction nature of coastal processes and hydrometeorological components and its response to climate change in periodically freezing sea. These findings are vital for improving vulnerability models and underscore the necessity of site-specific hazard assessments for seasonally freezing coasts under a warming climate.