Dynamic Changes and Prediction of Land Use Driven by Socioeconomic Activities in Bazhong City, Southwest China (2004–2024)

Land use systems are closely coupled with socioeconomic activities. To explore the interactions between land use and socioeconomic activities in Bazhong City, clarify the characteristics, drivers, and future trends of land use change, and provide scientific support for optimizing regional land resource allocation, ecological conservation, and food security, this study analyzes land cover data from 2004 to 2024, identifies economic drivers via principal component analysis, and predicts future land use trends for 2025, 2030, and 2035 using the GM(1,1) model. The results indicate the following: (1) Cropland decreased by 1338.69 km2, while forest increased by 1304.88 km2, with the largest area of mutual conversion occurring between these two types. (2) The comprehensive index of land use exhibited a fluctuating decline. The quality and continuity of cropland decreased, while the expansion of forest increased ecosystem services. (3) Principal component analysis identified the Comprehensive Economic Development and Urbanization Factor (e.g., GDP, urbanization rate, etc.) as the long-term core driver, with the land use driving system evolving through three stages. (4) Projections indicate that forest will increase, while cropland will decrease by 263.83 km2. While the cropland is projected to remain above the planned target by 2035, the persistent downward trend will nonetheless pose a threat to food security. This study provides insights for harmonizing land use planning with socioeconomic progress and ecological conservation with cropland protection and may also serve as a reference for related decision-making in similar regions.