Coupling models to assess impacts of land and carbon changes on sustainable ecological safety networks of Gui’an New Area, China

Gui'an New Area, the largest state-level new area in western China, serves as a hub for economic growth and a demonstration area for ecological civilization in China. Its sustainable development heavily relies on ecological protection. In this study, we explored the impacts on the regional ecosystem by analyzing the land use change, carbon storage (CS) dynamics, and ecological safety network pattern of Gui'an New Area during the period from 2010 to 2060. The study utilizes the FLUS model to predict land use in 2030 and 2060, applies the InVEST model to assess CS, and combines the MSPA and MCR models to construct an ecological safety network. The results show that policies drive land use types and landscape spatial changes in Gui'an New Area. The land use types of Gui'an New Area shifted significantly from 2010 to 2060, especially the decrease of cropland and the growth of buildings, as well as the fluctuating changes around woodland, grassland, and water; the core area of the landscape also showed a decreasing trend in the area share between 2010 and 2060. Gui'an New Area's CS displayed an overall decline from 2014 to 2060, despite an initial increase until 2030; this trend showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with woodland and building areas undergoing the most substantial changes due to variations in ecological space area and carbon density. The analysis of the ecological safety network shows that the number and area of ecological source land in Gui'an New Area fluctuated and decreased between 2010 and 2060; the number of ecological corridors declined as a whole; the spatial distribution was uneven; and the ecological space in the eastern part of the area was compressed by the influence of economic development and the growth of population density, which limited the formation and development of the ecological corridors. The study emphasizes that regional CS and ecosystem services can be enhanced through rational planning and ecological restoration. It is recommended that ecological space protection and long-term management be strengthened to achieve a win-win situation between ecological protection and economic development in Gui'an New Area and to promote sustainable development.