Identifying priority restoration areas by mapping land-use change drivers

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes are key drivers of vegetation cover loss. Northwestern Mexico hosts the only Mediterranean-climate region in the country, a socio-ecosystem that, due to its distinct socioeconomic and ecological dynamics, simultaneously undergoes processes of anthropization and vegetation recovery, driven by agricultural expansion and land abandonment. In order to identify areas with high recovery and conservation potential within this socio-ecosystem, we evaluated land-cover losses, gains, and rates of change between 2015 and 2020. Using LISA spatial autocorrelation analysis, we identified clusters of anthropization and vegetation recovery, as well as priority areas for conservation actions. Overall, LULC change within the Mexican Mediterranean socio-ecosystem reached 4 %, with coastal shrub being the land-cover type that experienced the greatest loss (64,443 ha), primarily converted to agricultural land, which expanded by 66,203 ha. Anthropization and recovery were the dominant processes in this region. High anthropization clusters were concentrated in mountainous regions and peri-urban areas along the coastal belt, likely associated with agricultural and livestock expansion, whereas recovery was concentrated in the southern portion of the study area, within large agricultural zones, possibly linked to field abandonment due to saline intrusion. Through spatial correlation analysis of change drivers, we identified five zones within the Mexican Mediterranean: Tijuana Coastal Shrubland, Ensenada Coastal Shrubland, Central Coastal Shrubland, Camalú–San Quintín Coastal Rosetophyllous Corridor, and the San Pedro Mártir Boundary Zone, where conservation and restoration efforts should be prioritized through the design and implementation of public policies regulating agricultural expansion at the expense of coastal scrub and other native vegetation types.