LLM-Enhanced Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Method for Australian Electricity Market

This study investigates a large language model driven (LLM) framework for intelligent preprocessing and short-term electricity price forecasting in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). By integrating unstructured news features, weather signals, and cyclical calendar variables, the model captures both physical and informational drivers of price volatility. A hybrid approach combining quantile regression with conformal calibration achieves statistically significant improvements in accuracy and uncertainty calibration. The framework demonstrates the potential of integrating LLMs into operational forecasting pipelines to support electricity market decision-making and risk management.

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Publication Details

Journal
Applied Sciences
Published
2025-12-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/app16010200
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

LLM-Enhanced Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Method for Australian Electricity Market

G. Lei, Jianguo Zhu, Yachao Zhu, Allen Wang et al.
Applied Sciences
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

LLM-Enhanced Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Method for Australian Electricity Market

G. Lei, Jianguo Zhu, Yachao Zhu, Allen Wang, Yutian Huang
article en

Abstract

This study investigates a large language model driven (LLM) framework for intelligent preprocessing and short-term electricity price forecasting in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). By integrating unstructured news features, weather signals, and cyclical calendar variables, the model captures both physical and informational drivers of price volatility. A hybrid approach combining quantile regression with conformal calibration achieves statistically significant improvements in accuracy and uncertainty calibration. The framework demonstrates the potential of integrating LLMs into operational forecasting pipelines to support electricity market decision-making and risk management.

Applied SciencesVol. 16(1)
University of Technology Sydney (AU), The University of Sydney (AU)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 42%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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LLM-Enhanced Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Method for Australian Electricity Market — G. Lei, Jianguo Zhu, et al. · Applied Sciences (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS