Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Economic Growth Relationship in Türkiye: Are Agricultural Farmgate Emissions a Major Factor?

Although the agricultural sector in Türkiye has met/is meeting various criteria during its accession process to the EU, it has not yet formulated a strategy for mitigating or adapt-ing to climate change, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which con-tribute to climate change. One of the significant reasons behind the farmer protests ob-served in the EU may be the perceived strict stance of EU leaders on combating climate change. This study examines the relationship between farmgate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economic growth in Türkiye. Using Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), the causal relationship between agricultural and non-agricultural emissions and GDP is explored in a country where agriculture remains a significant source of income. Accord-ing to the VAR results, although there is no statistical causality found between GDP, non-agricultural emissions, and farmgate emissions, it is suggested that Türkiye, which is following the path of emerging economies and the EU, needs to undertake measures both on the supply side and the demand side. The transition of rural residents in Türkiye to alter agricultural techniques that have been practiced for centuries for mitigation pur-poses may require time. The current findings of the paper do not dictate this. However, in a growing economy, transitioning to regional studies and demand-side mitigation policies for non-agricultural emissions can be implemented more readily. The process that began with supply-side mitigation efforts in countries like the EU, where farmers were structurally more prepared, could start with demand-side mitigation efforts in Tü-rkiye (such as dietary changes, measures in the processing industry, etc.). The wave of change observed in consumers and agricultural raw material processors could lead to-wards farmgate mitigation efforts.