THE IMPACT OF THE COMBINATION OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON MACROECONOMIC STABILITY: AN SVAR ANALYSIS OF MENA ECONOMIES (1990 2023) THROUGH THE OUTPUT GAP AND INFLATION

This research analyses the influence of fiscal and monetary policies (policy mix) on the macroeconomic stability of four countries in the MENA region (Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia) for the period from 1990 to 2023 using an SVAR model. The observations highlight different dynamics: monetary dominance in Morocco (money supply accounts for 24% of the variance in the output gap), synergy of tools in Tunisia (public spending accounts for 23% of the variance in the output gap within the framework of budgetary systems), and budgetary benefits in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, where public spending has a predominant stabilising function, particularly during oil crises. These results highlight the need to adapt economic policy coordination to the structural specificities of each country, particularly the degree of energy dependence, thus confirming the theoretical framework of Leeper (1991) and Woodford (2001) on policy dominance regimes.