Between Brussels and Beijing: Strategic Choices for the GCC Member States in the Era of Fourth Energy Transition

This article examines the evolving strategic choices of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states as they navigate renewable energy partnerships with two major global actors, namely the European Union (EU) and China, against the backdrop of the securitization of the fourth energy transition after 2022. The study situates Gulf decision-making within a transformed geopolitical context, where energy transition has become both an environmental imperative and a pillar of national security policy in Europe, China, and the Gulf. Using a comparative SWOT framework supported by original data on foreign direct investment, EPC contracting, and equipment supply, the analysis contrasts the EU’s technology- and regulation-driven model with China’s cost-competitive, rapidly deployable solutions. It explores how GCC states balance immediate needs for scalable, affordable green technologies, largely supplied by China, with future-oriented investments in European renewable markets to secure technology access and hedge against long-term hydrocarbon demand decline. The article also highlights the political, economic, and technological risks of overreliance on either partner. It concludes that the GCC’s green energy strategy reflects a broader balancing act in an era of great power rivalry, leveraging both EU and Chinese engagement to diversify partnerships, safeguard economic resilience, and maintain strategic flexibility in the era of global energy transition.