Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles
Abstract. We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% decade-1, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, −1–2% decade-1, in the lower stratosphere; but they are not statistically significant. The ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends of in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.
Authors
- Carlo Arosio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8759-6390)
- Wolfgang Steinbrecht (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0680-6729)
- Sean M. Davis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9276-6158)
- R. Fuller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2215-398X)
- Kleareti Tourpali (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4111-6176)
- Dan Smale (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3385-0880)
- Irina V. Petropavlovskikh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5352-1369)
- Glen McConville (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5837-7925)
- Emmanuel Mahieu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5251-0286)
- Sophie Godin‐Beekmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3903-3040)
- Viktoria Sofieva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9192-2208)
- D J Zawada
- Thierry Leblanc (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1235-6915)
- Monika E. Szeląg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8501-3366)
- Richard Querel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8792-2486)
- Peter Effertz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5147-763X)
- Mark C. Weber (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8217-5450)
- Jeannette Wild
- Kimberlee Robyn Dubé (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6103-5918)
- D. A. Degenstein (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0358-2256)
- Ralf Sussmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1970-7538)
- Corinne Vigouroux (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5489-0852)
- Robert Damadeo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1466-839X)
- Gérard Ancellet
- L. Froidevaux
- Brian Auffarth
- Eliane Maillard Barras
- Stacey M. Frith
- Natalia Kramarova
- Marie-Renee DeBacker
- Alexei Rozanov
Institutions
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- Langley Research Center (US)
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US)
- Laidlaw College (NZ)
- University of Liège (BE)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DE)
- University of Bremen (DE)
- Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BE)
- Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (GR)
- University of Saskatchewan (CA)
- Sorbonne Université (FR)
- NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (US)
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
- NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (US)
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (US)
- Science Systems and Applications (United States) (US)
- Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales (FR)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (FR)
Publication Details
- Published
- 2025-12-23
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5963
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- California Institute of Technology
- Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
- Université de Liège
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory