A Monte Carlo Based Method for Assessing Energy-Related Operational Risks in Railway Undertakings

The main task of a railway undertaking is to transport passengers and/or freight safely and cost-effectively. This task is enabled by the use of energy carriers. Since most of the rolling stock operated by major railway undertakings is electric, an additional area of activity involves managing electricity consumption and supply processes. Every business activity entails risk, including energy-related operations. The aim of this paper is to develop a method for assessing the risks associated with a railway undertaking from an electrical perspective and, based on this method, to perform such an assessment. As part of the research, a universal risk assessment approach based on the M_o_R® (Management of Risk) methodology was developed. Risk identification was performed using the risk description principle, followed by risk estimation. The study proposes national-level variables and a procedure for determining them using publicly available data. Risk assessment and process evaluation were carried out using Monte Carlo simulation as a probabilistic tool for uncertainty propagation. As a result, the potential losses and gains that a railway undertaking may experience from an electrical perspective were estimated for scenarios in which the identified risks materialize.