Challenges and Countermeasures in Strong Earthquake Risk Forecasting

Earthquakes are among the most severe natural disasters globally. Since 1949，the number of deaths caused by earthquake disasters in China has accounted for more than 50% of the total deaths from natural disasters. China has suffered from major earthquake catastrophes many times in history. Therefore，strong earthquake risk prediction is of great significance for reducing casualties and economic losses. Currently，strong earthquake risk prediction faces three core challenges：（1） At the scientific level，the mechanism of earthquake generation is unclear，the basic data in the epicenter area is scarce，and the deep observation technology is limited. （2） At the technical level，existing technical means have significant bottlenecks in monitoring，simulation and verification links，and the uncertainty of effectively obtaining parameters such as hazard，exposure and vulnerability is high. （3） At the social level，the contradiction between “probabilistic conclusions” and the “deterministic demand” for disaster prevention is prominent，and it is necessary to transform uncertainty into operable strategies. To address the above challenges，breakthroughs are needed in multiple aspects：（1） In the construction of scientific models，strengthen quantitative and refined three-dimensional seismic structure models，and integrate multiple technologies to identify major earthquake hazard sources. （2） In the field of detection and observation，promote high-precision，high-density observation and multidisciplinary comprehensive research，and achieve observation breakthroughs through technological innovation. （3） In zoning and scenario construction，promote the simulation of multi-scale and wide-frequency strong ground motion. For early warning technology，it is necessary to develop multi-source information fusion to realize real-time perception of disaster situation and emergency response. In the future，strong earthquake risk prediction needs to accelerate the iteration of key technologies，promote efficient collaboration between science and society，and strengthen international cooperation and data sharing. With scientific and technological innovation as the engine，promote the transformation of the four-in-one research paradigm of “earth science + information science + engineering science + management science”，realize the cognitive leap from single-discipline breakthrough to “earth system science”，the technological leap from static risk assessment to real-time dynamic monitoring，and the value leap from disaster response to social resilience construction. Finally，achieve effective identification，dynamic assessment，refined prevention and control，and efficient governance of strong earthquake risks，providing a solid guarantee for sustainable and high-quality social development.