Greenhouse gas emission forecasting analysis in Jakarta towards net zero emissions in 2050

Increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a serious threat to the environment, especially in Jakarta, which in 2023 recorded emissions of 63 MtCO 2 e. This study aims to identify the primary factors contributing to GHG emissions in Jakarta, project emission trends until 2050 using pessimistic, optimistic, and net-zero scenarios, and formulate effective mitigation strategies. The variables used are electricity consumption, private vehicle use, industrial energy consumption, waste generation, population growth, green open space, and public transportation usage. The analysis was conducted using various forecasting methods, including multiple linear regression, ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA, SARIMAX, Random Forest, and Multilayer Perceptron. Among these, the Multilayer Perceptron model achieved the highest predictive accuracy in long-term predictions. The results reveal that current mitigation efforts are insufficient to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, indicating the need for more aggressive interventions. Effective strategies include expanding green open space by 7% annually, reducing motorized vehicle use by 4%, lowering industrial energy consumption by 3%, improving waste treatment efficiency by 3%, and accelerating the transition to renewable energy. These findings highlight the urgency of enhancing climate action and provide a framework that can inform urban emission reduction strategies in other rapidly developing cities seeking sustainable, low-carbon futures. • How is the development the reduction of Greenhouse gas emission in Jakarta. • What is the important factor can effected the reduction of Greenhouse gas emission in Jakarta. • What is the best scenario that can effected the reduction of Greenhouse gas emission in Jakarta.