Corruption and ethnicity in Africa: the moderating role of institutional quality

This paper investigates how ethnic group affiliation and institutional quality jointly shape individual corruption experiences across 33 African countries, using Afrobarometer Round 8 survey data and a probit modelling framework. While existing literature recognises the link between ethnic fragmentation and corruption, limited attention has been paid to how institutional quality conditions this relationship. The findings demonstrate that members of influential ethnic groups are less likely to encounter corruption in weak institutional environments, where extortive practices disproportionately target less powerful groups. However, as institutional quality—measured via rule of law—improves, this pattern reverses: influential groups show a higher likelihood of collusive corruption, exploiting enhanced institutional structures for strategic cooperation and illicit gain. A threshold analysis reveals a regime shift at the average level of institutional quality. Robustness checks using multilevel mixed-effects logistic models confirm these dynamics. The results underscore the importance of considering ethnic power asymmetries when designing governance and anti-corruption reforms.