Navigating Climate, Innovation, and Policy Disruptions: A Systems-Based Adaptive Governance Framework for the UAE

Governance systems globally face mounting pressure from simultaneous climate, technology, and policy disruptions. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), with its rapid development trajectory, high innovation intensity, and environmental vulnerability, exemplifies the need for agile governance models. This study develops a systems-based adaptive governance framework specifically tailored to UAE's climate-health interface through expert interviews, policy document analysis, and systems modelling. Using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and agent-based modelling (ABM), the study analyses institutional agility, stakeholder engagement, and policy coordination mechanisms. Three emblematic cases Masdar City, UAE AI Strategy 2031, and Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050 validate the framework empirically. The methodology integrates expert interviews and identifies documents concerning sustainability policies from the UAE, applying grounded thematic analysis within the scope of qualitative systems theory and adaptive governance literature. Results reveal five critical adaptive governance components: polycentric governance systems, reflexive regulation, policy experimentation, social learning, and inclusive participatory processes. Key findings highlight systemic fragmentation in climate-health governance, underutilization of AI-enabled surveillance, and infrastructure vulnerability to compound risks. The framework provides actionable pathways for data-driven, polycentric decision-making aligned with UAE Vision 2031 and Net Zero 2050 objectives. This research contributes to adaptive governance theory in high-growth economies and offers scalable insights for regions facing similar climate-policy-innovation challenges. By creating a conceptual model based on CAS that operationalizes the Adaptive Governance Framework (AGF) through empirical insights and systemic linkages across the UAE's climate-health-policy interface, this study unites adaptive governance theory and complexity science.