Trapped in a Vicious Cycle of Political Negativity and Incivility on Social Media? Yes, but Only Before Elections

Numerous studies show that negative and uncivil political content on social media – where politicians criticize and insult each other – boosts voters’ engagement. While research suggests this engagement may fuel further negativity and incivility, this cyclical feedback loop remains theoretically unexplored and empirically untested. In this study, we propose a pre-registered hypothesis based on reinforcement learning theory: politicians may become trapped in a vicious cycle where the voters’ engagement generated by their negative and uncivil posts increases the likelihood of future negativity and incivility, especially in proximity to elections. To test this, we analyzed the daily short-term and monthly long-term effects of voter engagement with negative social media posts by low- and high-profile politicians across full electoral cycles in Belgium and the United States. Our findings reveal a vicious cycle of negativity and incivility based on engagement in the period leading up to elections. This suggests that voters’ inherent negativity bias on social media may contribute to escalating conflict between politicians – but primarily during election campaigns.