Changing the narrative: Socioeconomic determinants, not gun ownership, drive global homicide rates across 237 countries and territories

Intentional homicide is defined as the unlawful taking of a human life with the intent to cause death or serious injury. Gun ownership is often at the forefront of debates regarding IH, but few have explored this relationship worldwide. Our study seeks to fill this gap by examining the relationship between civilian gun ownership and IH rates globally, while also analyzing various socioeconomic determinants. To investigate this relationship, we conducted a retrospective, cross-national review using publicly available data reported from government websites and public health journals across 237 countries and territories. Spearman Correlation analysis, multivariable linear regression, and ANOVA were conducted with homicide rates as the dependent variable and were repeated after countries were stratified by gross national income. <i>P</i>-values <0·05 were considered significant. Civilian gun ownership did not correlate with IH rates with and without the stratification. The dependent variables that showed the strongest positive correlations with IH rates included Gini Index (r² = 0·55; <i>p</i> < 0·0001) and maternal mortality ratio (r² = 0·52; <i>p</i> < 0·0001). Linear regression showed that the Gini Index (r² = 0·60; p < 0·0001) and poverty rate (r² = 0·44; <i>p</i> = 0·033) can be used to calculate possible IH rates. Gini Index had a positive correlation with IH in lower-income countries. Globally, we found that the Gini Index and poverty rates were strongly associated with IH rates, while there was no correlation between civilian gun ownership. This suggests there are several underlying socioeconomic factors, rather than gun ownership alone, that contribute to IH globally.