Modulators of Risk Perception in the Cyclone-Prone Wards of Chimanimani District in Zimbabwe

Chimanimani District in the Eastern Highlands of Zimbabwe is one of the most at-risk districts for cyclones due to its proximity to the Indian Ocean. Despite it being situated inland, it is one of the locations where cyclonic risk is increasing. As a result, there is a growing population to whom the phenomenon is new, and whose perception of it is not fully explored. This research explores the main modulators of cyclone risk perception in Chimanimani with the purpose of understanding how the population perceives cyclonic risk and why. This information is critical to ensuring the sustainability of cyclone risk management and mitigation programmes. Further, the paper expands the lens of analysis from Western-based modulators to those rooted in Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS). The study adopted a qualitative methodology, grounded in phenomenology, to understand the main modulators of risk perception in the study area. The findings of the research point towards two tiers of modulators – those at a micro-level (past experience, credibility of information sources, proximity to risk event, probability factor) and meso-level (visibility of government leadership, indigenous knowledge system, spirituality and religion). At a micro-level, psychological factors were observed to be dominant influencers of risk perception. At the meso-level, Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) and spirituality emerged as strong influences of cyclone risk perception. The study concludes that risk behaviour is ultimately a result of the intricate interactions between individual and societal influences of cyclone risk perception.