Prediction of calving to conception interval (days open) in dairy cows using recurrent neural networks

This research paper addresses the hypothesis that sequence-based long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures improve the prediction of the next DO (days open) relative to a feed-forward multi-layer perceptron and a Cox model under strictly temporally valid predictors. Modern dairy farming can heavily benefit from optimising 'days open' for profitability and animal welfare. Machine learning can forecast this metric, improving farm management, disease prevention and culling decisions. This study used a dataset of 16,472 breeding records. The study compared the performance of feed-forward neural networks and two types of recurrent neural networks (RNNs). The results showed that LSTM most accurately forecasted the next 'days open'. This demonstrates that RNN models, due to their ability to capture temporal patterns in the data, significantly outperform feed-forward and traditional statistical methods in terms of mean absolute error and concordance.