Integrated Assessment for Optimal Urban Development in Oman: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Physical and Socioeconomic Factors

In parallel with achieving its 2040 Vision toward establishing smart cities, this study aims to pinpoint promising locations for future urban development in Oman, which reflect the unique physical attributes of the country, its renewable energy resources, and socio-economic conditions. To meet this goal at the national scale, the research relied on the following key factors: topography, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity, dust concentrations, wind speed, solar radiation, and access to electricity. These inputs were derived from remote sensing sources. A multi-layer spatial analysis was carried out within a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment to identify high-priority locations for future and sustainable urban growth. All parameters were assigned equal weights, particularly when applying a standard approach to produce a baseline suitability model at the national scale and to avoid subjective bias in the overall suitability assessment. Results showed that 2.1% of Oman’s land shows strong potential for sustainable urban development. Specifically, three locations stand out with the highest occurring along the southern section of the Arabian Sea between Al Jazir and Ad-Duqum. The other two locations occur at Salalah in the south and Sohar in the north. The promising locations occur proximate to major harbors and can benefit from existing infrastructure, including airports, highways, educational and medical services. Suggested locations also align well with earlier relevant studies. This study demonstrates the capabilities of integrating remotely sensed data with geospatial analysis in urban planning and development. Results are expected to help policymakers and planners to prioritize national-scale urban development.