Trends in Surface Water Quality and Trophic State in the Yucatán Peninsula over the Last Decade

Urbanization, expanding tourism, and infrastructure development are altering water quality in the Yucatán Peninsula (YP). This study evaluated temporal variations in water quality and trophic status using the Water Quality Index (WQI) and Trophic State Index (TSI) across ten inland water systems (IWS) monitored from 2012 to 2024. Spatial patterns from an additional 29 IWS sampled in 2024 were also analyzed. The Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimator revealed a significant decline in water quality (Z = −9.07, β = −2.62) and a sustained increase in eutrophication (Z = 4.00, β = 1.15). The NMDS separated two lake groups: one with high nutrients and total coliforms, and another with elevated TDS and conductivity. The PCA identified turbidity, nitrogen, chlorophyll-a, and total coliforms as variables exerting the strongest influence on water variability. The WQI indicated generally poor conditions except in Bacalar Centro and Xul-Ha, which showed fair quality. The highest TSI values occurred in inland systems, except for La Sabana, which exhibited hypereutrophic conditions linked to wastewater inputs. NT–PT ratio indicated nitrogen limitation in most lakes, likely driven by groundwater recharge and low surface runoff. Overall, results demonstrate a progressive decline in water quality and widespread eutrophication across the YP.