Moving to Crime Opportunity

Abstract Objectives Research has established that offenders are often generalists who commit a wide range of criminal offense types. Theoretical approaches to offending variety generally take a longitudinal perspective that tracks the variety of crimes committed over the life-course. Less theoretical work has been done at the microscopic scale of daily routines, though this is the scale at which individuals ultimately encounter and exploit criminal opportunities. Methods This paper develops a neutral model that links fine-grained offender mobility patterns in heterogeneous crime environments to offending variety. Offender mobility is modeled as Brownian motion originating from central anchor point. Crime opportunities are exploited upon encounter in a simple random fashion. Results The model shows mechanistically how offenders with higher mobility and/or environments with greater spatial overlap in distinct crime opportunities can display greater offending variety. Conclusions The model provides a neutral baseline for evaluating the relationship between day-to-day mobility, crime environments, and offending variety. The relationship displays distinctive mathematical regularities that can serve as a foundation for further theoretical development.