Integrating VIIRS Fire Detections and ERA5-Land Reanalysis for Modeling Wildfire Probability in Arid Mountain Systems of the Arabian Peninsula

Wildfire occurrence in arid and semiarid landscapes is increasingly driven by shifts in climatic and biophysical conditions, yet its dynamics remain poorly understood in the mountainous environments of western Saudi Arabia. This study modeled wildfire probabilities across the Aseer, Al Baha, Makkah Al-Mukarramah, and Jazan regions via multisource Earth observation datasets from 2012–2025. Active fire detections from VIIRS were integrated with ERA5-Land reanalysis variables, vegetation indices, and Copernicus DEM GLO30 topography. A random forest classifier was trained and validated via stratified sampling and cross-validation to predict monthly burn probabilities. Calibration, reliability assessment, and independent temporal validation confirmed strong model performance (AUC-ROC = 0.96; Brier = 0.03). Climatic dryness (dew-point deficit), vegetation structure (LAI_lv), and surface soil moisture emerged as dominant predictors, underscoring the coupling between energy balance and fuel desiccation. Temporal trend analyses (Kendall’s τ and Sen’s slope) revealed the gradual intensification of fire probability during the dry-to-transition seasons (February–April and September–November), with Aseer showing the most persistent risk. These findings establish a scalable framework for wildfire early warning and landscape management in arid ecosystems under accelerating climatic stress.