Application of a Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model for Groundwater Level Forecasting in Arid Regions: A Case Study from the Tailan River Basin

Accurate forecasting of groundwater level dynamics poses a critical challenge for sustainable water management in arid regions. However, the strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity inherent in groundwater systems and their complex interactions between natural processes and human activities often limit the effectiveness of conventional prediction methods. To address this, a hybrid CNN-LSTM deep learning model is constructed. This model is designed to extract multivariate coupled features and capture temporal dependencies from multi-variable time series data, while simultaneously simulating the nonlinear and delayed responses of aquifers to groundwater abstraction. Specifically, the convolutional neural network (CNN) component extracts the multivariate coupled features of hydro-meteorological driving factors, and the long short-term memory (LSTM) network component models the temporal dependencies in groundwater level fluctuations. This integrated architecture comprehensively represents the combined effects of natural recharge–discharge processes and anthropogenic pumping on the groundwater system. Utilizing monitoring data from 2021 to 2024, the model was trained and tested using a rolling time-series validation strategy. Its performance was benchmarked against traditional models, including the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, recurrent neural network (RNN), and standalone LSTM. The results show that the CNN-LSTM model delivers superior performance across diverse hydrogeological conditions: at the upstream well AJC-7, which is dominated by natural recharge and discharge, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient reached 0.922; at the downstream well AJC-21, which is subject to intensive pumping, the model maintained a robust NSE of 0.787, significantly outperforming the benchmark models. Further sensitivity analysis reveals an asymmetric response of the model’s predictions to uncertainties in pumping data, highlighting the role of key hydrogeological processes such as delayed drainage from the vadose zone. This study not only confirms the strong applicability of the hybrid deep learning model for groundwater level prediction in data-scarce arid regions but also provides a novel analytical pathway and mechanistic insight into the nonlinear behavior of aquifer systems under significant human influence.