The contradiction of green extractivism: Analyzing the metals demands for a just energy transition in Europe

The full decarbonization of Europe's energy matrix presents a contradiction: achieving it demands vast metal extraction, raising serious environmental and geopolitical concerns. This study critically evaluates the feasibility of a Just Energy Transition (JET) by analyzing the quantities and geographic locations of 19 key metals required for Europe's decarbonization across a set of defined scenarios. The methods applied were the generation of a database on the material intensity of renewable energy technologies, the cross-referencing of this database with the existing global mining capacities database of S&P Global, and their subsequent analysis through pluriversality design and redesign principles. The latter is used in this work as an epistemological framework that allows reading the results beyond the technocratic approach. The results reveal four major obstacles that hinder a JET: the preponderance of onshore wind and solar technologies, limited reserves for 10 of the 19 analyzed metals, persistent Global North-South asymmetries, and the concentration of critical deposits in specific vulnerable regions, as well as in commercial terms. These factors risk reinforcing neocolonial extractive patterns. The study concludes that it is necessary to consider the geopolitical and social, cultural and environmental implications of mining required by energy transition technologies to define scenarios aligned with a Just Energy Transition. • Critical metals demand for Europe's renewable energy transition in a set of scenarios. • Supply risks and market concentration exist in key metals sourcing. • Pluriversality lens can be useful to evaluate just and sustainable pathways. • Extractivist dynamics hinder a Just Energy Transition