Incorporating arbitrary stage duration distributions in stage‐structured matrix population models

Abstract Life table analyses in entomology are primarily age‐structured, despite many insect species having distinct life stages (e.g., egg, larva, pupa, adult). Stage‐specific parameters are frequently reported in studies using age‐structured models, even though these parameters are not directly incorporated into the analyses A key challenge in stage‐structured modelling is accurately representing stage duration distributions. Simplified assumptions, such as geometric distributions, are often used for convenience but can introduce bias and lead to inaccurate conclusions. This study introduces a method to directly incorporate arbitrary stage duration distributions into stage‐structured models without relying on approximations. The approach is demonstrated with an example and validated through simulations. The method effectively captures population dynamics with non‐standard stage duration distributions. Properly parameterized stage‐structured models enable the identification of critical targets for applications, such as pest management, which is challenging with age‐structured models.

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Publication Details

Journal
Agricultural and Forest Entomology
Published
2025-12-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.70028
Primary Topic
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Incorporating arbitrary stage duration distributions in stage‐structured matrix population models

Toshinori Okuyama
Agricultural and Forest Entomology
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
article

Incorporating arbitrary stage duration distributions in stage‐structured matrix population models

Toshinori Okuyama
article en

Abstract

Abstract Life table analyses in entomology are primarily age‐structured, despite many insect species having distinct life stages (e.g., egg, larva, pupa, adult). Stage‐specific parameters are frequently reported in studies using age‐structured models, even though these parameters are not directly incorporated into the analyses A key challenge in stage‐structured modelling is accurately representing stage duration distributions. Simplified assumptions, such as geometric distributions, are often used for convenience but can introduce bias and lead to inaccurate conclusions. This study introduces a method to directly incorporate arbitrary stage duration distributions into stage‐structured models without relying on approximations. The approach is demonstrated with an example and validated through simulations. The method effectively captures population dynamics with non‐standard stage duration distributions. Properly parameterized stage‐structured models enable the identification of critical targets for applications, such as pest management, which is challenging with age‐structured models.

Agricultural and Forest Entomology
National Taiwan University (TW)
Openalex Percentile: Top 27%
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
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Incorporating arbitrary stage duration distributions in stage‐structured matrix population models — Toshinori Okuyama · Agricultural and Forest Entomology (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS