Spatio-temporal changes and scenario prediction of ecosystem service value in Wuxi based on multi-methods

Accurate assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) is essential for supporting sustainable policy decisions. However, substantial discrepancies in valuation outcomes across different methodologies often lead to conflicting interpretations. To address this methodological challenge, this study selected the highly urbanized city of Wuxi as a case to compare the emergy analysis method and the equivalent value factor (EVF) method in evaluating ESV from 2010 to 2020. The comparison encompassed methodological approaches, outcomes, and application perspectives. In 2020, ESV estimates from the EVF and emergy analysis methods were 21.643 and 22.153 billion yuan, respectively. The EVF method indicated a gradual decline in ESV over the study period, while the emergy analysis revealed fluctuating trends. The EVF method proved suitable for ESV assessment across different land-use types, whereas emergy analysis provided a comprehensive evaluation of various ecosystem services, making it more appropriate for urban ecosystems like Wuxi. Furthermore, the study employed the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to project future ESV under different scenarios for 2030. The ecological protection scenario yielded the highest comprehensive benefits, with an ESV of 22.0 billion yuan. This research provides valuable methodological insights for ESV accounting and supports ecological policy-making in Wuxi.